What I Learned This Week

“The real risk is that both countries through their actions will throw up or create an economic iron wall, which means we'll be decoupling global supply chains.” Escalation of the U.S.-China trade war could intensify the tech arms race and slow the global 5G roll-out. What are the implications? How to invest.

The preceding quote by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, known as a “China expert,” underscores the growing global supply-chain disruption. In WILTW June 21, 2018 we argued that the Trump Administration’s strategic objective with tariffs is to curb China’s growing leadership in 5G wireless, AI, quantum computing, and genomics. In WILTWs January 24 2019, February 7, 2019, March 14 2019, and May 9 2019, we warned that a new Cold War has begun and many losers, and only a few winners may follow. Last week, President Trump announced plans to hike tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of imports from China and indicated he may expand tariffs to all Chinese imports. China struck ba…

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