In these times of “inhuman volatility”, we think we can be of special value. Do not hesitate to reach out with questions and concerns. We are here to help.

  • We began warning of a peak in the U.S. stock market on January 11, 2018 in an article entitled What would confound market participants the most in 2018? The big surprise might be is the S&P 500 close to peaking?
  • In WILTW of August 8, 2019, we wrote an article entitled Are we entering a period that will be known as the crash of ‘19 or the crash of ‘20?
  • In WILTW of August 8, 2019, we wrote an article entitled Travel slows amid rising costs and growing political tensions. Is mass global tourism at risk and who loses if it is?
  • In WILTW of August 29, 2019, we wrote an article entitled How would Facebook and Google, the ad-dependent duopoly, handle another recession?
  • We have warned numerous times of the fragility of the U.S. consumer. As we wrote in WILTW October 10, 2019, markets are clearly underestimating the threat of a consumer spending slowdown.
  • We have warned in 26 articles over the past three years about the systemic risks in the system.
  • We have been recommending gold for over a year. Since last June, we have argued gold would be the best performing asset in the world.
  • We wrote a multi-part series last summer arguing that the Fed’s rate cuts were merely “pushing on a string.”
  • We have warned relentlessly for the past decade that solving the problem of debt with more debt was going to end in tears.
  • We became concerned about a global pandemic in 1998 after reading The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance by Laurie Garrett. Starting in 2001, we began a series on this subject in 13D with over 70 articles during the ensuing years.

Mission Statement

  • We try to decipher the complexity of the world and simplify it.
  • We try to understand the direction technology and disruption are heading.
  • We look for an extreme consensus to take a contrarian position to. We enjoy and thrive in change, especially secular change.
  • We look for anomalies—what should be happening and isn’t or what isn’t and should be — because they are helpful in predicting the future.
  • We interpret agnostically what the markets are telling us. Our favorite mantra: “It’s your biases that kill you.”
  • We search for the best cutting-edge health treatments and technologies to share with others.
  • We tell truth to power. Our goal is to raise human consciousness.
  • We study cycles and the lessons of history as applied to the present. History repeats because human nature hasn’t changed.
  • We read extensively because knowledge is a competitive advantage and we want to share it.
  • We study investors’ last profound trauma because it will impact how they behave in the future.
  • We try to spread compassion and empathy. Compassion is good for business. Our greatest joy comes when we hear a client write “you have made me a better person, a better parent and a better spouse.”
  • We aim to be an inspirational voice in the world. William Faulker’s Nobel Prize acceptance speech is one of our mantras. “I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures has an inexhaustible voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance. The poet’s, the writer's, duty is to write about these things. It is his privilege to help man endure by lifting his heart, by reminding him of the courage and honor and hope and pride and compassion and pity and sacrifice which have been the glory of his past. The poet's voice need not merely be the record of man, it can be one of the props, the pillars to help him endure and prevail.”

A 37-year track record is no guarantee of success, but can you afford to bet against it?

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