Welcome to 13D Research
Kiril Sokoloff’s contrarian and secular thinking is evidenced in his forecast of disinflation in 1980, a time when the world was petrified with fear of hyperinflation. To counter this one-sided thinking, Sokoloff authored the 1982 book "Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?"
which developed many of the business and investment themes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Throughout the 1980s, Kiril Sokoloff lectured widely to investment groups nationwide, arguing for extended disinflation. His mantra:
“The highest interest rates in capitalism will eventually be followed by the lowest interest rates.”
Beginning in May 1984, Sokoloff recommended purchasing 30-year U.S. Treasuries, which at the time were yielding 14% and which Sokoloff called “the investment opportunity of a lifetime.”
Founded in 1983, the primary goal of 13D Research is to find the asset class, market or industry group that will outperform all others in a given year. We actively explore many topics, but we identify only one to three new major investment themes each year, holding them for three to five years, or until we find another asset class or industry that we think will outperform.
How is 13D Research different from Wall Street research?
- Time Frame: While most Wall Street research analysts take a 3 to 6 month outlook, 13D looks out 1 to 5 years. Because of this multi-year perspective, we avoid the chronic myopia that compromises most investment research. Sokoloff believes that "the ability to filter out noise and short-termism is fundamental to maintaining the presence of mind which allows one to keep sight of the larger picture." Or, as Warren Buffett is fond of saying "peace of mind" is a prerequisite for investment success.
- Analysis of Key Investment Themes: Unlike Wall Street analysts who spend the bulk of their time covering stocks in industry sectors--and marketing to clients--Kiril Sokoloff and the 13D team are able to detect and dissect the big themes that dominate investment returns.
- Total Independence: 13D enjoys total independence and its sole objective is to deliver good investment advice. 13D makes no markets, advises no corporations, manages no money and has no other businesses.
- Track Record: As a result of identifying significant anomalies and taking contrarian stances over long periods of time, 13D has enjoyed an exceptional track record. [View Our Timeline]
- Thought Provoking: In addition to investment advice, 13D is a source of inspiring and unconventional thinking. To successfully navigate today's complex world, we believe it is vital to keep an eye on the lessons of history and the wisdom of the great philosophers and writers.