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The bullish case for Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 85% drop in the past two years fits our 90% decline buy signal. Will it be proven right again?

Over the past two years, we have largely stayed on the sidelines of the crypto debate. We weighed in when it became clear the euphoria of 2017 was reaching a breaking point (see WILTW September 7, 2017). We again addressed the topic in WILTW August 9, 2018 after several clients asked us whether it was time to reinvest in Bitcoin. Our answer then was no: retail sentiment had not bottomed and institutional money seemed to be growing only more wary of the crypto ecosystem. And then in WATMTU November 4, 2018, we compared Bitcoin’s collapse to some of the greatest parabolas in history, suggesting such dramatic falls inevitably reverse. Over the past month, Bitcoin has spiked more than 35%. Why do we believe the rebound may be sustainable? We...

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