What I Learned This Week

What would confound market participants the most in 2019?

Rather than issue another forecast in a sea of thousands of forecasts, we analyze what are the markets telling us and then combine that with the consensus and the big surprise. The big surprise might be the U.S. dollar is peaking and is on the verge of a significant and long-lasting decline. In our fourth-quarter recap issue, we wrote as follows: At the beginning of 2018, we had four major macro convictions: 1. Peak S&P 500 2. Peak Big Tech 3. Peak U.S. dollar 4. The dispute between U.S. and China would shake the world…While the peak U.S. dollar theme has not been proven right, it has also not been proven wrong. We could argue that the case for a weaker dollar has gotten stronger over…

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