We look at the world through multiple lenses–mathematics, economics, engineering, physics, psychology, and other disciplines. Using multiple models is crucial to our process, helping us turn information into insight and spot broader trends that others miss.
Among the topics 13D covers:
The story of the fox and the hedgehog has been told in many forms through the ages, but the essence of it is always the same. The fox evades his attackers in a variety of inventive but exhausting ways, while the hedgehog adopts one tried and trusted strategy—hunkering down and letting its spikes do the work.
In the words of Greek poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Discussions of the hedgehog and the fox often come down to whether it’s better to be one or the other. But in a world that rewards expertise and the groundbreaking insights that come from the clash of domains, we need to be both. 13D is both.
The answers may be unknown, but it’s only through imagination that you can escape the manacles of conventional thinking. It’s hard to have vision without imagination.
Genuine contrary thinking requires such independence of mind and disdain for popular opinion that, by its very nature, it can be embraced by only a few.
We believe a contagion will continue until proven otherwise. An example is extreme weather events. We began chronicling these in 2002, when floods in Eastern Europe reached 500 year extremes. The next year, France had the hottest weather since records began. And ever since, weather extremes have gained in frequency and intensity.
An anomaly is an inconsistency. It might be something that should be happening and isn’t, or it might be something that is happening and shouldn’t be. The best known and most common examples are stocks (or a stock market) that go down on good news or refuse to fall further on bad news. When an anomaly first appears, it is only a subject for further study. Perhaps the anomaly will disappear. But, if it persists, then you must ask the question: “Why?” The answer often leads to the truth.
The messages from the markets are increasingly complex and conflicting. Therefore, we are continually evaluating our macro views in light of total market action? from credit to bonds, to currencies and equities, to emerging markets and inter-market ratios.
A long time ago, we came to the conclusion that investors base their attitudes on their last traumatic experience. That says a lot about the past, but virtually nothing about the future. The more traumatic the losses, inevitably, the bigger the bull market in the aftermath. Irrational under-pricing or over-pricing of assets creates the best investment opportunities.