Sample Publications
These examples represent a small subset of our themes which are broadly categorized in energy, commodities, climate change, water, electricity & utilities, technology, emerging markets, demographics, media, and many others. Please Contact Us directly for more specific examples.
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03-12-2009
| 01-22-2009
| 01-08-2009
| 06-15-2006
| 03-09-2006
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| HOW THE APPROACH OF PEAK OIL WILL IMPACT MONEY MANAGERS (11-29-2007) - We are intensely concerned that global money managers are woefully unprepared for peak oil and largely oblivious to the amount of time, capital and effort it will take to mitigate the problem.
Robert Hirsch, one of our consultants, has probably studied where peak oil has occurred--in regions and countries--more closely than anyone we know. (You may be surprised to hear that peak oil has already occurred in 64 countries.) Hirsch was the lead author of a 2005 risk mitigation study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy--"Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management." The report's conclusion is dire indeed. In essence, Hirsch concludes that if we wait until world oil production peaks before taking dramatic action, the global economy would have a "significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades." | | The Ultimate Contagion: The Coming Boom in Emerging Markets (Part I) (10-31-2003) - Which Is The Greater Truth: "Those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it", or "The only lesson of history is that there is no lesson of history"? We are serious students of history. For example, we have read the entire 12-volume History of Civilization by Will Durant twice in the last 30 years. There's a time for history, and there's a time for vision and imagination. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, and potentially 4 billion people joining the world economy--which has never happened before in history--it is perhaps a time for vision and imagination. In this unprecedented period, this may be the only way of having a chance to see the future correctly. | | IS RETURN ON INVESTMENT FOR COMPANIES PRODUCING BASE METALS POISED TO ACCELERATE? (03-04-2003) - We continue our bullish stance on commodities originally postulated in our March 2001 recommendation to buy gold at $263 per ounce. Since then, the metal has been one of the world?s best performing asset classes. Our bullish case is substantiated further by the CRB Index?s upside breakout in December, when it penetrated its prior cycle peak of 230 on its way to a recent high of 249.3, and now stands 38% above its October 2001 low. The CRB Index had been stuck in a bearish technical pattern of lower cyclical highs and lower cyclical lows for 20 years. | | THE COMING PLAGUES...BIO-TERRORISM COULD ERUPT WITHIN A DECADE...Beneficiaries: New Antibiotics, Genetic Testing, and Antiviral Drugs (07-13-2001) - Plagues are a real and increasingly dangerous threat to world health. Three developments are setting the stage for another pandemic: Widespread and excessive use of antibiotics has created microbes that are impervious to antibiotics. Mass migration, travel, immigration and increased urbanization allow virtually instantaneous spread of an infectious disease. The global public health system is in total disarray. Forty-four million Americans are uninsured. Five billion people live in the global equivalent of New York City?s 1890s tenements, with inadequate nutrition, housing, urban sewage and water systems. Biological weapons may become the major proliferation concern of the coming decade. At least 11 countries are pursuing offensive-based biological war programs | | HOW TO INVEST IN THE COMING GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS: Are Grain and Crop Prices ? At 20-Year Lows ? Making A Long-term Bottom? A Reversal In The Dollar Could Cause A Surge In Commodity Prices (07-09-2001) - Several factors are combining to make the next 40 years a much greater challenge to meet human agricultural needs. Cropland area per person is shrinking. The amount of irrigation water per person is dropping. And crop yield response to additional fertilizer is declining. The result may be the beginning of a secular bull market in agriculture-related businesses. The theme appears to possess three key elements for success: (1) Growing Demand; (2) Limited Supply; and (3) Attractive Valuation. | | A BULL MARKET IN COMMODITIES? (05-25-2001) - On March 14, 2001, we published a report entitled "Buy Gold Before Central Banks Are Forced Into Major Reflation." In the 7 weeks since that time, gold shares have been the best-performing asset class anywhere in the world.
| | WATER: WORLD'S MOST COMMON RESOURCE COULD BECOME ITS MOST PRECIOUS COMMODITY (05-17-2001) - Much has been written recently about the over-investment in technology. Timelier to investors, though, may be sectors of the economy, which have endured years or decades of under-investment. Spurred by the power shortages in California, the media and investors have begun to focus on the nations neglect of infrastructure investments in airports, air traffic control, power plants, electricity distribution lines, and petroleum refineries. Now there is growing evidence that water may become as important and valuable a commodity as oil is today in the global economy | | BUY GOLD - BEFORE CENTRAL BANKS ARE FORCED INTO MAJOR REFLATION (03-14-2001) - One of the most famous magazine cover stories of all time was the Business Week feature in 1978 entitled "The Death of Equities." Many people incorrectly date the infamous article to the beginning of the bull stock market in 1982. In reality, the Dow was in a broad trading range for 4 years with a monthly low of 750 in 1978, 775 in 1980, and 805 in 1982. |
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